Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology (CET)
Technical Brief
Number: 2009.9.v.1.1
Revision Date: December 21, 2009
Justin Amirault, Joshua Chien, Saurabh Garg, Drew Gibbons, Ben Ross, Maureen Tang, Jia Xing
Ikhlaq Sidhu (PI), Phil Kaminsky, Burghardt Tenderich
Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology
cet.berkeley.edu
http://cet.berkeley.edu/dl/BatteryBrief_final.pdf。
Abstract
The battery represents arguably the most important and most technically challenging component of the electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem. Within the battery market are intriguing issues such as battery type and chemical compilation; performance and efficiency; cost; market demand and environmental concerns.
This brief provides an overview of the current state of battery technology and the EV battery industry, focusing on lithium-ion (Li-ion) technologies. Part A provides an overview of the battery technology and ecosystem, dissecting the battery and defining components, addressing the various chemistries and performance comparisons, as well as market demand. Part B offers performance and cost models, Part C delves into the environmental impact of batteries, and Part D considers additional issues such as the availability of raw materials from a physical and political perspective and future trends within the EV battery ecosystem. The document concludes with key findings within these aforementioned areas. Details of the mathematical models used in this report are offered in the Appendix.
Introduction
EV battery manufacturing is currently dominated by several well-established technology companies in Asia, as shown in Figure 1. Leveraging long-standing success as leaders in consumer electronic battery manufacturing, these companies have begun to penetrate the small electric vehicle (EV) market and have taken the most significant first steps in R&D and establishing key partnerships to implement their products.
Globally, the push for EV battery technology and manufacturing capabilities has attracted billions of dollars in venture and commercialization funding. From Warren Buffett’s recent $230 million investment in Chinese company BYD to A123’s recent closing of $69 million to ramp up manufacturing operations, the optimism displayed by the private investment community for EVs is quite compelling, especially given today’s economic climate. Combined with over $2 billion in U.S. stimulus funding intended for EV battery technology, this industry will likely be one of the few to see strong investment in the near term. The growth rate of the EV battery market is heavily debated, but most estimates put the EV market well above $100 billion in the U.S. alone by somewhere late in the next decade.
While battery manufacturing is a mature industry, its application for the use in EVs is very much in its infancy. Despite decreasing costs and improving performances across nearly all technologies, a definitive leader has yet to emerge as battery efficiency is still elusive amongst manufacturers. While there are certainly promising technologies and companies that are attracting serious investors, it is still anybody’s guess as to what will be “under the hood” in ten years. The bottom line is that there are many unknowns that will further shape the EV battery landscape over the next decade. How ecosystems develop in terms of location, scale and scope will play an integral role.
Part A: Overview of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Many of the challenges and opportunities relating to EV batteries arise from the current state of battery technology. Thus, an understanding of the technology is essential before the broader business model implications can be understood. This chapter provides an overview of the science behind lithium-ion batteries, and discusses the performance and cost attributes of various chemistries that are currently on the market.
1. Introduction to Lithium-ion Battery Technology
Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are attractive for electric vehicle (EV) applications because of their relatively high energy densities per unit mass, volume, and cost. As shown in Figure A-1, the lithiumbased chemistries have three times the energy density of other systems like nickel metal-hydride and nickel-cadmium. Figure A-1 also shows that unlike nickel metal hydride, where there is only one set of components and chemical reactions, many different materials may be used for lithium-ion batteries. For example, the red line represents the energy available when lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) is used, while the pink line shows the energy available when the battery is made of lithium iron phosphate (LFP). This variation allows manufacturers to tailor their products to a specific application and provides a basis for competitive advantage for battery producers.
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Contents
Introduction ....................................................................1
Part A: Overview of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles (EVs) ........... 2
1. Introduction to Lithium-ion Battery Technology .............................. 2
2. Performance Fundamentals for Lithium-ion Batteries........................... 4
3. Selected Lithium-ion Chemistries ............................................ 5
4. Market Demands............................................................... 6
Part B: Performance and Cost Models ............................................ 8
1. Battery Weight Model......................................................... 8
2. Battery Manufacturing Cost Analysis ......................................... 9
2.1. Summary of Battery Manufacturing Costs .....................................12
2.2. Use Phase Cost Analysis ....................................................14
3. Cost-based Selection Criteria for Choice .....................................18
3.1. Battery Chemistry Selection Criteria .......................................18
4. Electricity Cost Considerations...............................................19
Part C: Environmental Impact Assessment for Batteries .......................... 24
Part D: Additional Considerations for EV Battery Manufacture ................... 26
1. Raw Materials and Potential Supply Issues ................................... 26
2. Future Trends in the EV Battery Ecosystem ................................... 27
Conclusions .................................................................... 28
References ..................................................................... 30
Appendix ....................................................................... 32
Biographies......................................................................41
About UC Berkeley Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology ..................... 42
References
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20. Ibid.
21. A123 Systems: www.a123systems.com/technology/life (2009)
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