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 CNN预测2012年十大科技趋势_触控技术、语音控制、社交手势等榜上有名 |
美国CNN网络版发表了Pete Cashmore先生的文章，对2012年的十大科技趋势进行了预测，触控技术、语音控制、社交手势等热门技术均榜上有名。
从平板电脑的持续热销到团购行业的疯狂，以及互联网IPO的回归，2011年已经成为科技行业的转型之年。
变革的步伐十分迅速，书店、视频租赁连锁、报纸等传统行业也以超乎想象的速度衰落。数字时代的发展可谓一日千里，因此对2012年做出预测基本属于瞎猜。不过，通过对今年下半年的观察，我们至少也可以对明年年初的发展做出一些猜测。
以下就是我对2012年科技行业创新的一些预测：
1、触控计算
新的输入方式将主宰2012年的趋势。iPad等平板电脑或许将成为台式机和笔记本电脑的优秀候选品，但我相信，它们的作用不止于此：还将成为既有产品的替代品。正如命令行让位于图形界面一样，鼠标也将被触控屏取代。
这一信号非常明显：作为两款最新的桌面操作系统，Windows 8和Mac OS X Lion都从同门移动系统中引入了大量功能。从本质上讲，这些新界面都是把触控界面的元素移植到传统的桌面环境中。
假以时日，这半步将变成完整的一步，而移动操作系统将占据主导。2012年底前，这种转型无法完成，但我们将会逐步深入，而使用电脑鼠标的时间或许会越来越短。
2、社交手势
在社交媒体领域，社交手势似乎将会成为2012年的领导性趋势。今年9月由Facebook发布的“无障碍分享”(frictionless sharing)功能，使得用户无需点击按钮即可与好友分享媒体内容。只要批准了一款相关应用，你所听过、读过和看过的内容都会自动发布到资料页面中。
如果你在Facebook的News Feed信息流中看过Spotify或Social Reader等应用，你肯定已经发现了这些功能。
这一趋势对于社交网络非常有意义：Facebook已经拥有8亿用户，因此增速势必要放缓。但如果能够实现分享活动自动化，Facebook的内容数量将会加速增长。然而，还有一个重要问题：用户可能会厌恶这些自动分享功能，并对相关应用持怀疑态度。
3、NFC(近场通讯)和移动支付
移动支付明年可能会全面发展。我们今年已经看到很多重要的移动技术创新，包括可以让任何人接受信用卡付款的移动支付服务Square。
2012年将是NFC年。NFC使得手机可以替代信用卡：只要将配备NFC芯片的手机在信用卡读卡器附近晃一下，即可自动付款。据测算，到2013年，五分之一的手机都将配备NFC芯片。这一领域的早期竞争者包括谷歌钱包、Visa钱、美国运通的Serve以及ISIS。
4、超越iPad
如果触控计算是未来的发展趋势，那么iPad必然称王。然而iPad已经在2011年末面临了严峻的挑战：我此前就曾预测，亚马逊Kindle Fire明年的销量将超越iPad。为什么？很简单，iPad卖499美元，Kindle Fire仅售199美元。
亚马逊的优势并不仅限于价格，该公司还拥有完整的电影、图书、电视和其他媒体的内容商店。对平板电脑而言，硬件本身的确不容忽视，但内容绝对至关重要：由于能够为Kindle Fire提供大量媒体内容，因此将吸引众多用户。
为什么要由一款设备构成整个的趋势呢？随着iPad竞争对手的崛起，内容厂商、分销商，甚至应用开发商也将拥有一个全新的平台来推广自己的产品。的确，Kindle Fire采用了谷歌Android操作系统，但亚马逊的Android与其他Android平板电脑有着很大的不同，因此无论是用户还是应用开发者都不会认为这是“又一款Android设备”，而是会将它当做一个全新的平台来看待。
5、电视无处不在
这是否意味着你可以随时随地观看自己喜爱的电视节目？恐怕没那么快。
有线电视公司制定了一个狡猾的计划：他们允许你通过上网设备观看电视直播，而且可以点播电影和电视节目，但前提是保留有线电视账号。Dish Network、时代华纳和康卡斯特(Comcast)都推出了这种服务。
从2010年开始，“电视无处不在”的说法便甚嚣尘上，但这在当时看来显然言之过早。不过，随着平板电脑的崛起，“掌上电视”的需求显然越来越高。
6、语音控制
这一趋势在2012年全面腾飞的可能性不算太大。iPhone 4S提供的Siri语音助理服务提供了非常新颖的功能，只要通过语音控制即可发送短信、创建备忘录，并搜索互联网。这或许将成为语音控制趋势的开端。
语音控制的确已经出现多年。然而效果一直不够精确。Siri以及与之类似的产品定义了一个全新的时代，使得我们可以与移动设备进行“沟通”。其他厂商可能也会陆续跟进。不仅如此，苹果可能还会用语音控制来代替电视遥控器。
7、空间手势
其他的输入方式也已经取得了进展。例如，由微软Kinect引领的空间手势已经受到了广泛欢迎。就像电影《少数派报告》中的场景一样，只需要在空中挥一挥手，就可以控制电子设备。
得益于众多黑客，Kinect已经可以兼容其他平台，这一输入方式明年将被应用于更多设备。
8、第二屏幕体验
“第二屏幕体验”是电影和电视行业高管近期鼓吹的一个词汇，指的是能够听懂你正在观看的电视内容，并为你展示相关节目和电影的应用，主要适用于iPad。由于有很多一边看电视一边使用平板电脑或手机的用户，因此这一技术完全有能力提升互动体验。
迪士尼已经为《狮子王》和《小鹿斑比》等电影设计了第二屏幕应用，而很多电视台也提供了类似的服务：我们预计2012年将会出现更多类似的产品。
9、柔性屏幕
就我个人而言，已经等不及要使用柔性屏幕了：这种可以弯折的全新界面可以通过弯曲手机和平板电脑来实现放大、缩小等功能。
诺基亚和三星都透露将在2012年推出配备可弯折屏幕的手机。然而，真正令人振奋的在于，手机可以做得像纸一样薄，而且可以卷起来放在口袋里不过，这恐怕还要等上几年。
10、HTML5
最后一个趋势则是HTML5，也就是第五版HTML标准。开发者可以借此创建更丰富、互动性更强的应用。
这个标准究竟有何作用？随着开发者疲于为Android、iOS和Windows Phone等各类操作系统开发应用，HTML5将提供一个机会，帮助他们实现“一次编写，随处可用”。
Adobe取消移动版Flash的消息将加快HTML5的崛起速度，这意味着一种重要的移动视频和应用开发工具将会消失，而HTML5则会填补这一空缺。对于消费者而言，这意味着所有的设备都将拥有更为丰富的应用和体验。
简而言之，2012年将通过触摸和语音控制为各类设备提供新的互动方式，内容分享流程也将更为简洁，移动支付将会发生变革，而网络应用也将大幅增加，更不用说还有数以百计我们尚未想到的创新。
查询进一步信息，请访问 http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/19/tech/innovation/top-tech-trends-2012/index.html。
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The Top 10 tech trends for 2012 By Pete Cashmore, Special to CNN
December 19, 2011 -- Updated 1756 GMT (0156 HKT) | Filed under: Innovations
From the continuing rise of tablet devices to the daily-deals craze and the return of the Internet IPO, 2011 has been a transformative year for technology. -- (CNN)
The pace of change has become blisteringly fast, with traditional industries -- bookstores, video-rental chains, newspapers -- crumbling more quickly than we could have imagined.
Predicting what will happen in 2012, therefore, is a shot in the dark: A year is virtually a lifetime in the digital era. And yet we can at least make a guess at what will happen in the early part of next year simply by looking at the trends that are shaping the latter half of this year.
Here's my best estimate of some of the innovation we'll see in 2012:
1. Touch computing
New input methods will be the dominant trend of 2012. Tablet computers such as the iPad might seem like a nice alternative to desktop and laptop computers, but I believe they're more than that:
They're replacements. Just as the command line (remember that?) gave way to graphical user interfaces, so the mouse will be superseded by touchscreens.
The signs are obvious: Windows 8 and Mac OS X Lion, the latest desktop operating systems, borrow heavy from their mobile counterparts. These new interfaces essentially impose a touchscreen-inspired interface over the traditional desktop environment.
Over time, this half-step will become a whole one, and mobile operating systems will dominate. The transition won't be complete by the end of 2012, but we'll be much further down the path, and using computer mice much less often.
2. Social gestures
In the social media realm, social gestures appear to be the leading trend of 2012. Launched by Facebook in September, this so-called "frictionless sharing" functionality removes the need to click a button to share media with your friends. Instead, everything you listen to, read or watch is automatically posted to your profile once you approve the relevant app.
If you've seen apps such as Spotify or Social Reader in your Facebook news feed, you're already aware of these features.
The trend makes sense for social networks: With 800 million people already on Facebook, its growth is bound to slow. But if sharing becomes automatic, the volume of content on Facebook will grow at an accelerated pace. There's a big problem, however: Users may be "creeped out" by all this automated sharing of their Web activity and grow suspicious of the apps using it.
3. NFC and mobile payments
Google Wallet, Google's mobile-payment system, may become more widespread in 2012.Next year is likely to be the year when mobile payments blossom. While we've seen a great deal of innovation in mobile payments technology this year -- including the success of Square's iPhone dongle, allowing anyone to accept credit card payments -- 2012 is the year of NFC.
What's that, you ask? Near Field Communication essentially lets you replace your credit cards with your phone: Wave an NFC-enabled phone near the credit card reader in a store (or taxi cab), and the money is deducted from your account.
By 2013, 1 in 5 cellphones are expected to be NFC-equipped. Early contenders include Google Wallet, Visa Wallet, Serve (by American Express) and ISIS.
4. Beyond the iPad
If touch computing is the future, then the iPad is surely king. And yet the iPad came up against serious competition in the latter part of 2011: As I wrote previously, I expect the new Amazon Kindle Fire to outsell the iPad in 2012. Why? Simply put, the iPad costs $499 while the Fire costs $199.
Amazon's advantages don't stop at the price point, however: The company owns an entire content store of movies, e-books, TV shows and other media. With tablet devices, the hardware is somewhat important but the content available for the device is absolutely critical: With plenty of media available for the Fire right away, it's an appealing proposition.
Why does one device constitute an entire trend? Well, as a true competitor to the iPad emerges, content producers, distributors and even app developers may have an entirely new platform on which to push their wares. (And yes, the Kindle Fire does indeed run Google's Android operating system, but Amazon's version is so unlike other Android tablets that neither users nor app developers will perceive it as "yet another Android device" -- it's a whole new platform.)
5. TV Everywhere
So you thought you'd be able to watch all your favorite shows online and get rid of your cable subscription for good? Not so fast!
The cable companies have a cunning plan: They'll let you watch live TV, plus on-demand movies and TV shows, on your connected devices if you keep your cable subscription. Dish Network, Time Warner and Comcast are among those offering the service.
TV Everywhere has been buzzed about since 2010, of course, and could be a dud -- but the rise of tablet devices would seem to create increased demand for a "TV in your hands."
6. Voice control
Here's another trend that's got a moderate chance of taking off in 2012: Voice control.
Siri, the voice-control feature in the iPhone 4S, may spread to other devices.The novelty of Siri on the iPhone 4S -- which allows you to send texts, create reminders, search the Web and much more using just your voice -- may be the start of a new trend in voice controlled devices.
Surely voice control has been around for years? Yes, but it wasn't very accurate.
Siri and its ilk define a new era in which we talk, and our devices understand -- often on the first attempt. Other device makers will likely follow suit. What's more, Apple may use voice control to replace the TV remote.
7. Spatial gestures
Other input methods are gaining traction too: Microsoft's Kinect, for instance, has given rise to interfaces that use spatial gestures. Just like in "Minority Report," your devices can be controlled simply by waving your hands in the air.
Thanks to the many innovators who have hacked Kinect to work with other platforms, we may see more devices using this input method next year.
8. Second-screen experiences
"Second-screen experiences" is a buzz-phase among TV and movie execs these days. It refers to apps (mainly on the iPad) that listen to the audio output of your TV and display content related to the show or movie you're watching. The chances are that you already use your tablet computer or phone while watching TV, so there's ample opportunity to make the viewing experience a more interactive one.
Disney already has second-screen apps for movies such as "The Lion King" and "Bambi," while multiple TV networks have similar offerings: We can expect many, many more to be released in 2012.
9. Flexible screens
Personally, I just can't wait for flexible screens: These awesome new bendable interfaces will let you zoom in, zoom out and scroll around a page simply by twisting your phone or tablet.
Nokia and Samsung have both hinted they may release phones with bendable displays in 2012. The really exciting stuff, however -- like paper-thin devices that roll up to fit in your pocket -- is still years away.
10. HTML5
Can I squeeze in one more trend? It's HTML5 -- the fifth iteration of the HTML standard -- and it lets developers create richer, more interactive applications than ever.
Why does this matter? As developers tire of building applications for every operating system out there -- from Android to iOS to Windows Phone and beyond -- HTML5 offers the opportunity to build an app once and have it work everywhere.
The rise of HTML5 is bound to be accelerated by a recent revelation: Adobe is killing off Flash for mobile devices, meaning one of the primary methods of serving videos and rich applications on mobile phones is about to disappear. HTML5 will fill that gap. For us as consumers, that means richer applications and experiences on all our devices.
In short, 2012 is all about new ways to interact with our devices through touch and voice control, new lightweight ways to share content, a revolution in mobile payments and a plethora of rich Web applications -- not to mention the hundreds of new innovations that we've yet to dream up. I can't wait.
Editor's note:
Pete Cashmore is founder and CEO of Mashable.com, a popular blog about tech news and digital culture. He writes regular columns about social media and tech for CNN.com. |
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| 产品信息通讯社（365PR）是全球B2B品牌推广开拓者，以“传播产品，报道企业”为天职，立足PageReader软件平台，为科技企业、新锐媒体、互联网创新者、展览机构、公关公司提供富有成效的信息支持和资本投资服务，是全球新锐媒体的“共同编辑部”。 |
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2012-1-4 18:5
新手上路